We, the undersigned civil society representatives of the Republic of Armenia (RA) express our deep concern and indignation regarding the de-national nature of recent developments and illegal processes related to the environment in Armenia, in particular the decision on increasing water release from Lake Sevan up to the mark of 360 million cubic meters (which is twice as much as it was in previous years), adopted by the RA National Assembly on August 14 2008 upon the initiative of the RA Government.

We remind that Lake Sevan is the strategic freshwater reservoir of the Republic of Armenia as well as the region, and the actual use of the lake shall pursue the aim of restoration and preservation of this source of drinking water, taking into consideration drinking water scarcity in the whole world. Impeding the increase of the level of Lake Sevan for any purpose may be hazardous for the lake ecosystem.

We are convinced that the increase of water release from Lake Sevan and the consequent decrease of the lake’s level are in the interest of a group of individuals. The decision adopted in August 2008 is a precedent to raise the same issue in the following years and to impede the rise of lake’s level on various pretexts. The slow-down of the cleanup of the lake shores, delays in operation of Vorotan-Arpa tunnel, holdup of reconstruction of highways, speculation of emergency weather conditions, proposals on introducing amendments to the RA Law “On Lake Sevan”, and others serve the mentioned aim.

We are skeptical about the “expert conclusion” drawn by the Expert Commission on Lake Sevan and we cast doubts on the independence and incorruptibility of “experts” who concurred with the release of water, which would bring down the lake’s level and lead to its negative water balance.

We record that the enrollment of representatives of society into various councils and commissions founded by different institutions in RA, is, in fact, an imitation of democracy and transparency. The fatal for the most important strategic resource in the country decision has not been presented and discussed even in structures like the National Sustainable Development Council, which operates adjunct to the RA Prime Minister, founded with the aim of ensuring sustainable development of the country and balancing economic, social and environmental issues, or the Board of Experts of the Aarhus Center founded by the joint initiative of RA Ministry of Nature Protection and OSCE Office in Yerevan, aimed at fostering public participation in decision-making on environmental matters.

We state that the decision on doubling the water intake from Lake Sevan has been adopted by the RA Government and the RA National Assembly without a comprehensive study and scientific justification for the demand of water, without assessing possible damages to the environment as a result of such a measure as well as without adequate notification and engagement of stakeholders, including residents of coastal communities. This decision violates RA Constitution Article 10, RA Water Code Article 5, RA Law on Lake Sevan Article 11, RA Law on Environmental Impact Assessment Article 15 and UN Economic Commission for Europe Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-Making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters Articles 4, 7, 8.

We condemn the environment-related policies run by RA authorities and believe that they do not comply with their obligations prescribed by the RA Constitution on ensuring environmental protection, recovery as well as rational use of natural resources.

We demand

• to immediately restore in the RA Law on “Approval of Annual and Complex Measures on Conservation, Restoration, Reproduction, and Use of the Ecosystem of Lake Sevan” the maximal 170 million cubic meters water intake threshold, which has been established based on perennial research of scientific-research institutes rather than suspicious reasons given by a couple of institutions;
• to reveal and publicize the causes of water scarcity in Ararat Valley and the ways how the water of Azat and Aparan reservoirs has been spent in 2008,
• to undertake immediate actions on demolishing illegal constructions on the lakeside, organizing thorough cleanup of the shores and preparing those for the rise of the level of the lake;

§ to reveal the violations of RA legislation and to call to account those guilty, in particular the officials and others involved in corrupt transactions.

We inform that for us, the undersigned organizations, which represent the active stratum of the civil society, it would be possible to collaborate on environmental issues with relevant state bodies of the Republic of Armenia if:

• we do receive an appropriate response to our aforementioned demands;
• we get convinced that in environment-related decision-making the RA Government demonstrates political will and acts in compliance with the RA legislation and international commitments;
• we become confident that state bodies, indeed, take proper account of the NGOs’ opinions and comments rather than making their participation a futile imitation.

96 civil society organizations has signed the statement.

On August 21, 2008 the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia adopted a decision to increase the volume of water release from Lake Sevan up to 360 mln. cubic meters (instead of 170 mln. cubic meters of previous years established by law).

According to the opinion of independent scientists duplication of the volume of released water from Lake Sevan is impermissible and dangerous for the lake. Climate conditions during 2008 have not been as unfavorable as to generate a need for a measure. While, the declared increase of demand for irrigation water is not justified adequately.

Once again the Armenian authorities prove their anti-national nature…

Once again the publicly-owned resources are sacrificed to satisfy the interests of a group of people…

Once again the coalition parties that pretend to serve national interests, particularly the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, have demonstrated unprincipled and self-seeking behavior.

Meanwhile, the real reasons for the increase of intake from Sevan are obvious – the authorities try to save from being sunk the illegal buildings of a group of oligarchs. As for how and by whom the additional volumes of released water are used – raises certain doubts.

ARMENIA‘S FUTURE IS IN DANGER…

Today Lake Sevan and Teghut forests are being destroyed,

Tomorrow the mines and biological resources will be exploited,

while the intended extraction of uranium will be devastating for the country.

The turn of the 20th century

was marked by the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.

The 21st century has begun

with a ‘white’ massacre conducted by native authorities…

LET’S SAVE OUR COUNTRY !

Crime is committed with our tacit agreement.

Silence implies agreement!

Разрешение конфликта всецело лежит в сфере международного
права. Однако, грузинская сторона
умело используя методику исторических фальсификаций, политических
инсинуаций, пользуясь преступным покровительством правительства
США,финансирующим правящий режим Грузии преподносит Миру события в
искаженном виде.

В настоящее время большая часть Южной Осетии уничтожена грузинскими
агрессорами. Продолжают гибнуть старики,женщины, дети. Регион взят в кольцо
блокады грузинской стороной,отсутствует вода,продукты,Грузинские фашисты
обстреливают больницу Южной Осетии,машины скорой медпомощи,не давая
оказывать помощи раненым.
Остановите Геноцид осетинского народа!
Люди имеют право на Жизнь дарованную Богом,преступно уничтожать людей в
угоду геополитическим интересам преступного правительства
Буша, переделывающего Мир. Почему Саакашвили и Буша не объявляют
политическими преступниками?!

В конце прошлого года в Ереване с помпой было подписано соглашение о предоставлении “Внешторгбанком” кредита “армянской” компании Armenian Copper Programme на разработку Техутского медно-молибденового месторождения. В обмен на банковские $257 млн ACP примет банк в равную долю – по 50% в специально созданной для разработки месторождения компании ЗАО “Техут”.

Между тем до этого Европейский банк реконструкции и развития отказал ACP в кредите на разработку Техута. Спрашивается, почему? Потому что прибыль от ее разработки никак не дотягивает до того ущерба, который будет нанесен окружающей среде. Да и кроме того, такие малопрозрачные компании, как ACP, входящая в структуру компании Vallex F. M. Establishment, европейцы стараются обходить стороной. За десятилетнюю историю компании общественность не имела счастья ознакомиться ни с ее финансовыми отчетностями, ни с 80%-ным собственником Vallex, зарегистрированным в Лихтенштейне. Более того, деятельность компании в Алаверди, где она владеет медеплавильней и правами на разработку рудников, никак не оценивается как положительная. Правительство Армении почему-то игнорирует факт того, что Vallex никак не берется за исполнение правительственного решения и продолжает засыпать со своей плавильни весь север страны половиной таблицы Менделеева.

На этом фоне обратимся к Техуту, разработка которого так приглянулась ВТБ. Довольно крупное Техутское медно-молибденовое месторождение было разведано еще в советское время. Однако наличествующие в 450 млн тоннах техутской земли 1,6 млн тонн меди и 99 тыс. тонн молибдена было решено оставить под недрами, поскольку из-за рассеянной концентрации металла его извлечение было бы выгодно лишь при разработке открытым способом. А это означало неадекватный ущерб природе. Вся территория покрыта девственным лесом, здесь берут свое начало несколько рек, много краснокнижной флоры и фауны.

Таким образом, правительство Армении приняло решение о передаче 1490 гектаров территории частной компании под разработку Техутского месторождения. Из этих га 1200 покрыты лесами. Кроме того, еще 81 гектар земель сельскохозяйственного значения принадлежит местным общинам. Чтобы понять масштаб эксплуатации месторождения, приведем лишь одну цифру. В результате 25-летней разработки Техутского месторождения хвосты (переработанные отходы) составят порядка 350 млн кубометров. Это при том, что накопленный суммарный объем хвостовых отходов всех горнорудных предприятий Армении в настоящее время составляет примерно 200 млн кубометров. Чтобы компенсировать такой масштабный ущерб скудной на леса природе Армении, необходимы огромные суммы. А что будет выплачивать компания? Законодательно хвосты считаются опасными отходами 4-й степени, за размещение одной тонны которых в природе выплачивается природоохранная выплата в размере $5, а за размещение пустой породы – $2. Между тем и пустая порода, а тем паче хвосты, содержат тяжелые металлы, из-за которых почва и вода при них становится практически ни к чему непригодными. Данная территория вымирает. За 25 лет компания переработает 278 млн тонн пустой породы и 175 млн тонн руды. Мизерные и неадекватные ущербу природоохранные выплаты сразу делают проект весьма привлекательным с финансовой точки зрения.

Согласно законодательству Армении, в случае несанкционированного размещения в лесной зоне отходов взимается штраф в размере $33 с квадратного метра, или $330 000 с гектара. Ущерб от хвостохранилища будущего Техутского комбината, размер которого составит 214 га, программой оценен в $155 тыс. То есть меньше в 455 раз. Комментарии тут излишни. При незаконном сенокосе в лесной зоне законодательством предусмотрены большие штрафы, нежели оценен ущерб от хвостохранилища с миллионами тонн зараженных тяжелыми металлами отходов.

Ущерб от открытого рудника, площадь которого составит 240 га, оценен в $22 тыс. Это при том, что густой лес на 240 га будет уничтожен и никогда больше не будет восстановлен. Гектары лесной территории, которые пойдут под застройку, оценены в $40/гектар. Таким образом, получается, что если бы с этих гектаров с компании взяли бы штраф за несанкционированный сенокос, то природоохранные выплаты были бы большими, нежели за уничтожение леса, опустынивание и отравление территории.

На территории месторождения берут начало истоки реки Шнох, которая, вливаясь в Дебед, достигает Куры. В результате разработки месторождения вода в Шнохе наполнится тяжелыми металлами и не только испортит проживание здесь всяких рыб, но и станет непригодной для использования в оросительных целях. Правда, до границы с Грузией Шнох и далее Дебед полностью очистятся от вредных соединений, но до этого все прибрежные к этим рекам общины будут вынуждены отказаться от орошения и рыболовства. Или могут не отказаться и с пищей вгонять в организм медь, цинк, кадмий, ртуть, свинец, стимулируя тем самым раковые заболевания. Опускаем тот факт, что в истоках этих рек нерестятся многие виды эндемичных рыб или в этой местности водится большое количество занесенной в Красную книгу представителей флоры и фауны. За вырубку 150 тыс. грушевых деревьев, дуба, граба, бука и иных ценных и промышленных пород леса компания обязуется выплатить ущерб в размере около $6,2 млн. В то же время на штрафы за несанкционированную вырубку такого объема леса всех активов Vallex не хватило бы.

Кстати, об экономической стороне вопроса. В настоящее время в Армении лицензии для разработки месторождений полезных ископаемых выдаются при расчете разведки запасов еще советского периода – давностью в 25-50 лет. Понятное дело, что тогда геологи не обладали ни соответствующими современными технологиями разведки, не рассчитывались запасы сопутствующих металлов, которые тогда были мало востребованы в мировой экономике (к примеру, рений), не было и отточенных современных технологий, позволяющих горно-обогатительным фабрикам извлекать металл из породы почти полностью, а не на 30-45%. Это еще один весомый плюс, намного повышающий привлекательность разработки металлургических месторождений в Армении, где в результате уничтожения геологической науки никто, кроме иностранных собственников, не имеет представлений о реальной стоимости месторождений.

В целом экологический ущерб от разработки Техутского месторождения оценивается в $6,7 млн, в которых рассчитано все – от вырубки леса до рекультивации территории инфраструктур и хвостохранилищ. Эта цифра мизерно мала в сравнении с тем ущербом, который на самом деле будет причинен природе на полторы тысячи га, даже без учета того, что два села (Техут и Шнох) в 3 тыс. семей (которых правительство Армении вынудило продавать свои земли компании по $0,1 за квадратный метр) через 25 лет лишатся средств к существованию и вынуждены будут покинуть свои родные дома. Компенсировать этот ущерб не сможет даже официально заявленная чистая прибыть компании в $30-35 млн ежегодно, из которых по $6-7 млн будет направляться в государственный бюджет Армении. Именно этот расчет стал причиной отказа европейцев от финансирования проекта и бессовестного согласия следящих за экологической сводкой по Москве “белых воротничков” из ВТБ.

В связи с сложившейся ситуацией в Армении регулярно проводятся различного рода акции против вырубки лесов. В следующем месяце намечается разбить на месте палаточный городок. Все, кто желает присоединиться к акциям протеста обращайтесь по электронному адресу.

 
Serzh arrives

Serzh gives an oath to his supporters.

For Levon Ter-Petrosyan winning Raffi Hovhanissian over is crucial: it’s a matter of securing a victory, or running the danger of not even getting into the second round. If Levon does not win over Raffi, the negative effects would be double if not triple: he will not only loose the Herritage Party’s electorate votes, but also loose it to another contender (HHD or Manukyan)… and that kind of formation could have a spiralling negative effect of disintegrating confidence in Levon camp. Ultimately, Raffi’s choice might be the deciding factor in determining who will be Serj Sarkisyan’s challenger in the second round.

That Raffi won’t be supporting Geghamian is very clear. He is not very likely to support Artur Baghdasaryan either. Raffi could support is Vazgen Manukyan, but only if the latter manages to amalgamate a significant camp around his candidacy, while Manukyan is relatively inactive and is making some strange (and some would say, irrational) moves like liaising with Dashnaks.

Raffi & Dashnaks

Now, some might argue that Raffi’s stance on Artsakh is generally close (at least in spirit) to that of HHD (ARF-Dashnaks), but Raffi Hovhanissian might be well reluctant to support Vahan Hovhanissian (the Dashnak candidate). After all, there is a whole history of much more complex Diasporic politics as well as HHD’s open support and cooperation with Serj Sarkisyan (which the Diaspora overall is not particularly excited about, with the exception of few organizations). If, however, Levon does not manage to win Raffi over and see his support go for Dashnaks, that would be very damaging for Levon’s campaign, as well as for the country as a whole, since they would then be presented with a near-monolithic ruling ultra-conservative and ultra-nationalist HHK+HHD… and it won’t be 10 more years of the same… it will be 10 more years of the much worse…

Raffi & Levon

Levon Ter-Petrosyan has already had a meeting with Raffi Hovhanissian. Raffi didn’t say “Yes” to Levon’s call, but he didn’t say “No” either. Of course, it would be premature of Raffi jumping on Levon’s bandwagon without even seeing the content of his 3-year plan. The two might have some clear differences of Artsakh issue, but one area where Raffi Hovhanissian’s stance is very constructive, and Levon’s is less so, is the issue of Diaspora. Let’s look at this issue in more detail.

The Diaspora: during Levon and Robert

Before the divisions of opinion about Levon started occurring in Armenia, those disagreements were already widespread within the Diaspora in mid 1990s over the Dashnak incident. Almost immediately Dashnaks of Diaspora started quickly spreading all kinds of roomers about Levon, while the non-partisan intelligentsia and intellectuals remained pro-Levon for a while longer. The perception that has been concocted by the Dashnaks (who are very organised and active within the Diasporan everyday lives) is that Levon is against the Diaspora as a whole (as if whole of Diaspora is Dashnak) and that Levon wishes to seal the Republic off from any Diasporan influence. The truth of the matter is that the vast majority of the Diaspora, though quite politically conscious, does not belong to any party. It’s internal affairs and perceptions are mediated by a very complex web of non-partisan institutions, newspapers, educational institutions, activists, the Church and NGOs, while all of these are headed by the intelligentsia and intellectuals of the Diaspora. So, the texture of Diasporan politics is radically different from that of the Republic. From day one in presidential office Levon Ter-Petrosyan started a very intensive dialogue with these Diasporic structures of non-partisan intelligentsia and intellectuals. He brought in many well-educated people from the Diaspora, one of whom was Raffi Hovhanissyan. Ter-Petrosyan’s wife, the First Lady, was particularly instrumental in the continuous development of this dialogue between Armenia and Diaspora. And the simple fact is that the current leaders of the Diasporic communities, as well as the new generation of intelligentsia and intellectuals do in fact remember all that.

Now let’s fast-forward to Kocharian years. It was during these years that we saw the series of Armenia-Diaspora conferences as well as numerous other initiatives, which were more of a spectacular show than a matter of substance and practical achievements of really integrating the Diaspora (rather than a select of particular wealthy individuals within it) in Armenia and vice-versa. Those conferences were like a colourful platform for lucrative business deals between the Regime and the Foreign investors. Furthermore, it was during Kocharian’s years that we saw the passing of that controversial and laughable constitution where the question of Dual-Citizenship is riddled with more mysteries than clear answers. In effect, it seems like there following false imagery has been concocted: Levon was a staunchest opponent of all of the Diaspora as he wanted to seal Armenia off from it’s people living abroad, while Kocharian and his followers are the flag-bearers of eternal friendship and openness toward the Diasporan Armenians. Yet the Diaspora has it’s own challenges and struggles, and whenever Kocharian & Co were kindly asked to offer the political, moral, diplomatic and symbolic support in those issues, Kocharian & Co’s response would be that of pure cost/benefit analysis. In fact, when one looks at specific cases, one may notice that Kocharian’s greed and desire for petty profiteering has resulted not just in a simple refusal for assistance, but has done more damage to Diaspora and it’s relationship with the Republic. As a result, Diaspora has been loosing a lot of ground abroad, while it’s structures are disintegrating.

Now, how does all this relate back to the current situation with Raffi Hovhanissian? For anybody who has half a brain in Diaspora (and there are quite a few of those), they can see through this false imagery generated by Kocharian & Co. At the same time the effects of Dashnak ill-mouthing of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and his resolutely anti-Dual-Citizenship don’t really improve his position in Diasporan view. Yet, Raffi Hovhanissian is not just another politician in the Republic – for the non-partisan Diaspora he is more of a “symbol” (a symbol of a return and a symbol of well-educated Western-Armenian who has a significant and independent say in Armenian political life) and that’s yet another source of his strength and significance.

What can Levon do at this stage?

So what can Levon do to win Raffi over? It’s the same question as “what can Levon do win back the non-partisan Diaspora’s sympathy?” And the simple answer is

(A) to highlight the corrupt nature of Kocharian & Co’s dealings with particular wealthy individuals and corrupt institutions of the Diaspora; to highlight Kocharian’s cold-shoulder for the burning issues in Diaspora’s struggles, and

(B) to include in his 3-year plan a clear policy that would offer a resolute support and assistance for the burning issues that the Diasporan Intelligentsia is confronted with – something that was ignored.

If Levon Ter-Petrosyan could deliver something along these lines in his December 8^th outline of his 3-year plan, it could really turn fortunes and contribute positively to Raffi Hovhanissian’s final decision of whom to support in these elections.

So here is what I believe would be an action of responsibility and integrity by Levon Ter-Petrosyan:

To continue campaigning and gathering support around him, AND THEN surprise us all  yet again by announcing his support for Vazgen Manukyan! 

If Levon’s ultimate desire is to counter the existing regime rather then the pursuit of power and personal ambitions, then he should be able to find it within himself to be able to do this.  This would be both an act of a admiting the mistakes and taking responsibility as a mature politician, who admits his mistakes and goes back in history to correct them – a proof that is expressed not in words and promises, but in action.  This would also be an act of acknowledging his greatest mistake and the act of greatest injustice and brutality that he committed in 1996, which redefined the standards of what is acceptable political behaviour in Armenia; and which had put in motion the chain of events that brought the country to this political impasse.  He must realise that his name is tarnished by many years of propaganda and history re-interpretation – some of his legacy and image is still recoverable, but most of that tarnish is beyond such recovery as to guarantee a decisive victory ( which is needed in the age when election frauds are a standard), while the future path of the country remains at stake.

The action of his support for Vazgen Manukian would not only dispel all the doubts about leadership’s stance on Artsakh, but would also clear Levon’s legacy as a political figure in Armenia’s history. 

The simple answer is WAR, or more precisely, WARS!!!  Here’s a breakdown of how it works:

1) The WAR in Iraq. The continuous “misfortunes” (to put it in mild terms) that the Americans are experiencing in Iraq have caused the dollar to dwindle to a level of lowest value in it’s recent history.

1a) This has caused a steep rise in prices that is already felt in many lesser-industrialised countries and those countries that are not self-sufficient in terms of their food-supply including some European countries (like Greece and Portugal), though this rise in international prices is mostly felt in lesser-developed world countries like Armenia and Georgia and Azerbaijan.

1b) This has led Bush administration to initiate the kind of fiscal and monetary policies that puts a lot of strain on the dollar and utilises the dollar’s potential to its maximum.  In effect, this has led to a decline of confidence in stock trading, but more so in futures trading.  In simple terms, Bush is really pushing it, and the American economy (and the dollar) is really walking on knife’s edge.  If not carefull, it’s a bubble that could burst any time.

1c) Armenian economy depends on dollar more than on any other currency, not just for imports but also for everyday spending and money sent from relatives abroad.  As a result, the war in Iraq (which Armenia officially participates in) has an indirect effect on everyday livelihood of ordinary people in Armenia.

2) The WAR in Artsakh – Armenia is preparing to match Azeri military spending. The increased oil revenues of Azerbaijan (due to [A] the opening of the Baku-Ceykhan pipeline and [B] the unexpected rise in international prices of oil in the last 2 years, which was also due to the war in Iraq) have caused Azerbaijan to become the fastest growing economy with 37% growth rate. Yet instead of addressing its socio-economic problems and the problem of the refugees Azerbaijan has increased its spending on police force and the military. In 2007 the military budget of Azerbaijan was set at $600million, yet increased to $1.1billion (more than Armenia’s whole state budget).

2a) In response, to match Azerbaijan’s military build-up, Kocharyan’s new year started with tightening his grip on taxes and state revenues.

2b) Dram was artificially appreciated (to allow for a pumped up budget figure in dollar terms).  Anyone with a basic knowledge of economics knows that this a very unhealthy policy as it has immediate destabilising repercussions in next fiscal year.   Nevertheless, in theory the prices of basic necessities should have declined, but exactly the opposite happened. Why?

2b-i) Because of the point 1

2b-ii) Because tax officials are working harder

2b-iii) Because Central Bank is under president’s control and is pursuing monetary policies of helping the president to raise the necessary war budget – i.e. helping to extract the surplus volume created by appreciated dram (minus the depreciated dollar caused by the war in Iraq).

If there was no war in Iraq, Kocharyan would be in a lot easier position because then he wouldn’t have to deal with the depreciated dollar effects.  But, being a spineless president of a Banana Republic, just like so many other Banana Republics, he sold out to US and joined the so called “Coalition of the Willing” for some petty $10million in military aid.  Now he has to deal with both points 1 and 2.

And who takes all this the blow??? The ordinary people.          

Robert Kocharian’s foreign policy can be best described as that of a spineless pushover and there are numerous examples from the last 10 years to illustrate this point: from his remarks on CNN-Turk TV falling short of actually denying the Genocide, to his silence over British Ambassador’s statement on 24 April 2004 which caused an uproar in the public, to put it in mild terms; the resistance to repopulate Kashatagh; passive, rather than a proactive relationship with Moscow and the Diaspora and so forth.  In effect, a lot of diplomatic ground has been lost in the Nagorno Karabakh debate because of one person’s monopoly over a set of very sensitive issues as well as due to that person’s failure to be perceptive and analytical when it comes to global politics.  If before (during the Levon Ter-Petrossyan administration) Artsakh (NKR) was seen as a concerned party now the conflict is seen widely in international realm as being between Armenia and Azerbaijan, whereby Armenia is the actual aggressor and occupier.

At the same time we see Azerbaijan arming itself to the teeth and being very proactive in it’s mostly unfounded propaganda both domestically and abroad thus, in my opinion, paving the way for a military action that would not be met by any substantial objection from the international community.  Yet, Azeri military has a long way to go and a lot more billions to spend before it can reach what they call in war studies “absolute superiority”, which would be necessary to fulfil their military ambitions. (the fact with modern warfare is that defence is a lot cheaper and easier than offence – for instance a $34,000 Stinger missile can easily destroy a $34,000,000 aircraft).  In short, there is a lot more spending, training and hating to do before Azerbaijan can hope to have a real chance of military success in Artsakh.

Nevertheless, it must be noted that the kind of bombing weaponry that Azerbaijan’s purchases focus on indicate less a commitment to put pressure on the diplomatic table, than a desire to launch an act of war.  This is further confirmed by the continuous racist propaganda against Armenian people that is pouring out of Baku’s highest governmental ranks.  

I believe that at this stage the Armenian government should make it’s own diplomatic move by setting a precedent.  To discourage any military ambitions of Azerbaijan and to encourage other channels of settlement (such as diplomacy, commerce, cultural exchange, social exchange etc) Armenian and Artsakh governments (with a possible backing from Russia) should issue a joint statement that any military offensive against Artsakh would be understood as Azerbaijan’s unwillingness to cooperate within diplomatic and civilised channels of conflict settlement and be interpreted to Azerbaijan’s commitment to war rather than regional peace, and therefore would seriously hinder the chances of the return of the buffer territories in the future.  In other words, this would make it clear that should Azerbaijan be the first to attack, that act would dramatically change the “terms and conditions” of what would be on the negotiating table in the future.        

The debate on Nagorno-Karabakh has hitherto been informed by 2 conflicting principles: Self-Determination vs State-Integrity. Both principles are embodied in the UN charter; neither of the two principles is privileged; they obviously clash with each other and are often resolved by powers that be.  The Armenian side supports the former and the Azeris formulate their arguments taking as a priori the latter.  This dichotomy between Self-Determination and State-Integrity, between Armenianness and Azerinness has been around since day one of the times when the search began for a non-military solution.  In this quick article I argue that the principle of Self-Determination offers an ethical and just solution to this deadlock, but for reasons other than those of Armenian “national interests”.

The principle of State-Integrity is a totally wrong way to go about this conflict for a number of reasons.  First of all we must understand that Statism as a political form is a new, and, in many ways, alien concept to the region of Caucasus.  For centuries, very diverse peoples of Caucasus have lived side by side while organising their communities in terms other than those of Sovereignty and Statism.  Statism itself is a post-colonialist invention designed to ensue an indirect control, mediation and manipulation of smaller nations by the imperialist powers.  The form of Statism that emerged in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, plays directly in favour of the Russian, American, British and other imperial interests.  The old imperialist pattern has manifested itself in the case of Nagorno Karabakh too: Divide and Rule.

The second point why Statism is a wrong direction for understanding and resolving conflicts in Caucasus is that the State works as an empty signifier – a meaningless topological image that does not take into account the realities on the ground.  That topological, or ontopoligical image of what one’s country’s image looks like works as fetishistic tool in the process of construction of a unique identity and unique self-interpretation.  This is certainly the case with Azerbaijan, which still struggles to come up with a coherent narrative of it’s own national identity – something that is necessary when suddenly gaining an independent statehood.  Azerbaijan does suffer from ontopology, but that does not mean that it should become the basis for resolving a very real problem on the ground.  Armenians didn’t have this problem of ontopology since they could base their discourse of identity upon centuries and millennia of unique culture, language and a very tragic history of survival, rather than a topological image.

  The third point to take into account is that the boundaries that the Caucasian republics as well as the autonomous regions inherited from the Soviet union are completely artificial, and they should not form the basis for a resolution of Nagorno Karabakh problem.    

The explicitly racist propaganda against the Armenians as a whole and fascist hysteria that has been pouring out of the highest governmental ranks of Azerbaijan are not helping at all.  When one hears the racist remarks that became the trademark of president Aliev and his TV propaganda, one is quite discouraged to search for a solution around the negotiating table, just as one is growing increasingly suspicious of placing trust in Azeri proposals for “highest status of autonomy for Nagorno Karabakh” when it comes from officials who have made no secret that they are racists.  Statements like “Armenia is an illegal state established on the territory of Azerbaijan” by president Aliev are not very productive, sane or respectful to say the least.

The Azeri authorities have been promising “the highest status of autonomy and self-determination within Azerbaijan’s sovereignty”, but so far they have not shown any respect or regard for human, civil, and minority rights in any way that would make their offers trustworthy or considerable in any way.

What doesn’t help either is the new and reformulated rhetoric that Azerbaijan formulates that presents us with a map of New Azerbaijan that now incorporates not only the Nagorno Karabakh, but also Syunik, Tavush and lake Sevan.

And thus a simple question springs to mind: How can you sit around the same negotiating table with racists, fascists and people who are not committed to the principles of democracy and respect, and hope to come up with long-lasting solutions that are based on mutual-respect???  It’s difficult, if not impossible.  The answer is you cannot and you must not.  Racism and Fascism is something that has to be resisted in every corner, both at home and abroad. Peace cannot grow out of disrespect for the other!!!  And this is how I see the issue of Nagorno Karabakh.

It is no longer just a territorial issue, but also a human rights issue, just as it is an issue of resisting racism, fascism and anti-democracy in the region!!!

Any concession to the current Azeri regime would be a betrayal not because it would be a matter of surrendering the national interests, but because it would mean surrendering to a racist, anti-democratic and disrespectful regime. 

I see the last 10 years of negotiations as something that has gone terribly wrong.  If before there were 3 parties sitting at the table: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh, now it became an issue that is formulated in oversimplified conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (which is how Azeri government’s point of view).  The fact that Nagorno Karabakh war was a war of self-defense and self-liberation is by now reformulated as an “Aggression on Azerbaijan’s territory by the Republic of Armenia”.  In other words it is now formulated in exclusively Statist terms – as if all political and military processes can happen only between states and can only be resolved in the framework of statism.

I see the concept of Self-Determination as the just and ethical direction for the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh deadlock.  I favour the concept of Self-Determination over the concept of State-Integrity, not because I’m Armenian or want to see the stance of the contemporary regime defended, but because I’m a person with a generally anarchist and socialist worldview – because the principle of Self-Determination in this case is both ethical and just.

Another (deliberate and ideological) mistake that Azerbaijan (and now Armenia too) makes is to see Nagorno Karabakh Armenians and the Armenian of the 3^rd republic as the same side with identical interests and identical visions for solution.  As far as Azerbaijan is concerned this kind of framing works together with their generally Statist standpoint and the worldview of “Armenian aggression against Azeri territory”.  The Armenian authorities too have been playing along this kind of formulation of interests because it gives a direct control and the right of say to Yerevan, which has been a cause of a rift between Yerevan and Stepanakert (both of political and popular levels).  This is a gross mistake: the interests of the Nagorno Karabakh people are far from being identical to those of the Republic of Armenia.  Any negotiation that will not take into account the will of Nagorno Karabakh people – the very people who fought and liberated their homeland, will land on the rocks, and offers no plausible future on the ground.

  I also see the need for the Right to Return for the refugees from mainly Azerbaijan, but also Armenia who were caught up in this conflict.  All Azeri refugees must have a right to return to their homes  and rebuild their lives in the sovereign republic of Artsakh.

As a mode of political and international form I see the necessity that Nagorno Karabakh be recognised as a sovereign statehood of Artsakh by Azerbaijan.  And by Artsakh I mean not the territories that were once drawn up by some Soviet officials in the old days, but the very real territories that are de facto under the control of the Nagorno Karabakh people.  Of course, this means that Shaumian region and some parts of the Martuni region will, unfortunately, have to be left out.  It is a reality that Azerbaijan will inevitably need to recognise diplomatically.  Artsakh people fought their war of independence and they liberated their homeland from the national-imperialist tyranny that posed very real threat of systematic massacres and loss of minority right – fair and square — just like Americans once liberated themselves from British imperialists, just like Algierians liberated themselves from the French, just like Mozambicans liberated themselves from the Portuguese, etc.

Given the current state of uncompromising racist propaganda that is pouring out Azeri media and regime, I believe Armenians should keep a much tougher and more principled stance that is not based on the notions of “national interest”, but on notions of ideological principles that emphasises the values of democracy, liberty, human rights, equality and Respect!!! 

Levon Ter-Petrossyan’s arrival on the political scene is no doubt an important consolidating force.  Before his announcement of his intentions to stand for elections there was no real unifying factor (or, more precisely – Individual) for the opposition to unite around.  In effect, there was no proper opposition in the country.  LTP’s presence changes all that, which is also why the Kocharian camp is already showing signs of being threatened.

Levon Ter-Petrossyan and the forces that have gathered around him are an opposition, no doubt. But are they an Alternative? I seriously doubt that.

Levon Ter-Petrossyan is a liberalist.  He’s just another technocrat.  The bottom line is that he is a believer in free-market economy and capitalist economic and social relations.  Does he or would he offer an alternative that addresses the requirements of working class?  I doubt that.  Would he repel the anti-unionist laws that are in place today?  I doubt that.  Would he remove the barriers for cooperative organizations?  I doubt it.  Would he decentralise sovereign power?  Would he devolve the decision-making power to self-governing bodies (hamainqs)? Again, I doubt that.

Furthermore, although like never before Armenia needs and craves for freedom of information and civil liberties, this does not necessarily mean that a full blown liberalist economic formula is the answer to the economic problems at hand.  What Armenia needs today is the return of Ideology – an ideology that would be original to stale liberalist discourses of 20^th century that have proved to lead to centralisation of power under the ruling economical elite, corruption of values and capital accumulation.  Like never before Armenian craves for a package of policies that carries an emphasised Social and Communal (hamaynqayin) and Communitarian (hamaynqakan) character, rather than a nationalist, liberalist or technocratic one.

At the time of Soviet collapse Armenia was among the very few countries who had a self-contained and self-sufficient food production.  In case of total isolation, Armenia had a self-sufficient mechanism of production and distribution of all the basic food essentials at moderate and affordable prices.  In a good-old liberalist fashion LTP initiated a move away from that kind of structure, and Kocharian continued that.  This is one of the immediate economical and security issues that need to be addressed, though I have serious doubts that LTP is the one to address it.

Nevertheless, I should point out that the main bundle of accusations against LTP is totally out of historical and economical context. It’s misleading and false.  These accusations are usually reminding us of the economical collapse and hardships in early 1990s (the LTP years).  And these hardships are always blamed on LTP – quite unfairly.  This is one area where LTP cannot be plausibly accused, and here is the reason why:  The way that Soviet production was organised is through a multitude of centrally controlled and state-organised production relations that span across the republics – i.e. a factory in Kyrgyzstan and Moldova would be manufacturing parts for another factory in Armenia where those parts would be assembled into a gadget, which in turn would be shipped to Ukraine to be assembled into the final product, which would be distributed through Moscow.   YerAZ automobile factory and the Orbita factory were a good example of how this state-controlled and centrally planned mode of production worked.  After the Soviet union collapsed and privatization had set in, these production relationships started to disintegrate.  In effect, the factories were still producing products for other factories in the newly independent republics that no longer needed them or even had closed down.  Furthermore, the opening up of the Soviet economy and the unmonitored “dumping” (exporting goods to a particular country at non-profitable price level) practices by the USA and other major capitalist industrial powers, basically killed the demand for Soviet-manufactured goods, which were of comparatively lower quality, packaging and marketability, and resulted in a massive outflow of liquid capital that was not designed for open global economy.  Anybody who reads research papers about this particular episode of history of post-Soviet space can confidently tell that this was the primary cause of the economical collapse and hardships that were experienced by all the post-Soviet republics. Levon Ter-Petrossyan in his tiny little Armenia had little to do with all this.

Nevertheless, I need to ask: if LTP is elected won’t he overthrow the Kocharian Clan only to replace it with his own LTP Clan?  Won’t he go hunting down all the businesses that have established their comfortable little profitable enterprises under the protective wings of Kocharian, Bargavach and HHK, only to replace those with petty enterprises under his own Cln?  Yes, that’s quite a possibility.  And that’s what you get when there is no proper ideology and no system of materially-grounded analytical thought in the country’s political terrain.  In effect, what you get is a political atmosphere of no hope, no alternative, no direction other than the liberalist capitalist one that we already have in place.  That is why people are easily hyped about particular individuals, rather than particular policies or directions.   

To conclude, I think LTP could be instrumental in bringing about more freedoms, civil liberties and human rights, and an environment where once can conduct business facing less threat from the ruling economical elite.  Yet, I cannot see how LTP can put the country on the long-term economical path that addresses the malice of Global Capitalism.

But what you see there is only the front reception room… I know that there is a whole huge palace complex with latin-american style piazza behind it.

When I first watched this video, the first instinct was Anger – pure anger!  But then one needs to sober up and look at all this in calm analytical and historical perspectives.  This is not Oligarchy!!! “Oligarkhia” is a stupid apologetic term applied by the social scientists to some post-Soviet republics, with a connotation of “a peculiar case of capitalist development that went *slightly* off track” … as if Capitalism is designed to deliver general prosperity and long-term balance for all, but in some rare cases small anomalies such as oligarkia are possible.  Bullfuckingshit.  This is Capitalism, and that’s all there is to it.  And oligarchy is the integral and inseparable part in its development.

From this point onwards I refuse to use the term “Oligarkhiya“.  Let’s name things as they are: this is Capitalism!  Yes, it’s a simple and banal point, but nevertheless an important one: revolution must start from a refusal to participate in the usage of the terminology and the language of the enemy.  And Gagik, Serzhik, Robik, they are not oligarchs – they are Capitalists — the rulling elite of this capitalist regime — the Labrador Class acting on behalf of Global Capital.  There is nothing new or original in the way that capitalist structures develop and integrate in Armenia — a same old story that we have witnessed time and time again.

As I watched this video the second time, I couldn’t help but recall the videos from pre-Castro Cuba… it was all the same. Cuba was a satellite puppy of America with very small white minority owning everything there was to own and indulging themselves in endless endeavours of bourgeois decadence, while the vast majority of population was living in shanty-towns and townships with no education, healthcare, regular food – toiling in sugar cane plantations and tobacco fields.  And sooner or later people did rebel – people rebelled and as we have seen in so many other places the Communist forces hijacked the revolution.

My instinct is to wait – wait until the conditions have matured to the point when people will see that it is not the Individual leader or the Will to do good that is the question, but the Structure of the economical system that cultivates these material and cultural conditions, and the social and political contradictions and paradoxes.  Until people themselves realise it that capitalism is not the right path to democracy, free-entrepreneurship and participatory-politics, until that day revolutions will either be shipwrecked or replaced by dictatorships.

I wonder what would happen if a video like this was broadcasted on Armenian TV?  Yes, Armenia definitely needs alternative channels of Information whereby the info can flow openly and with no restrictions or privileges.